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New Yorkers will find out the identity of their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The contest has become an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by accusations of racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a platform of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by significant margins in every poll conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to Trump's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with Americans' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of considered, lackluster resistance – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting the candidate directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had married a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced difficulties in recent days, after video emerged appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in recent years. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd