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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward script. It frequently functions as a type of apology. We regret we got wrong your squad in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the largest turnaround receives the award. In reality, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or just the biggest upset.

Yet the latest race is distinctly different. The group of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions fading and longtime also-rans ascending together. During an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a wild and thrilling season, he's facing five other exceptional coaches.

This is how the projected ballot could look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his rare ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to conjure big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the level of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current isn't a typical year!

Where his candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the leadership stuff, which wasn't a given following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial hot start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still